SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation - September 2024

Support for renewables sliding while nuclear holds up.

In Brief

  • As Australians adjust to their new financial circumstances and are more confident in the outlook on inflation, it appears as though cost of living pressures are slightly moderating
  • Confidence in the direction of Western Australia has declined steadily since its post-COVID highs
  • Australians have a clear preference for Kamala Harris in the upcoming US Presidential election, with nearly half believing her victory would be a better outcome for Australia

Positivity towards the renewables transition has dipped significantly this wave and, for the first time since the SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation began in June 2022, less than half of Australians (47%) now feel positive towards it, down from a peak of (70%) in August 2022.

Support for nuclear generation, at the heart of Peter Dutton’s energy policy, is stable with slightly more respondents supporting it (39%) than opposing (37%). This suggests that many Australians believe consideration of nuclear should not be taken off the policy table.

Support for various types of renewable energy generation does remain strong (e.g. rooftop solar – 84% and wind – 63%) and almost half (48%) also believe the transition is happening too slowly – although this too has slipped from a previous high of 55%.

Broader findings from our latest report continue to show that bills, housing and other essential expenses remain the number one priority for metropolitan and regional Australia. Predictions for the economy remain largely pessimistic although inflation concerns are easing with a 6% increase in confidence that inflation will decrease over the next year.

Cost of living pressures moderating as community adjusts

Our new wave of research suggests that cost of living pressures may be slightly moderating as people adjust to their new financial circumstances and are more confident that inflation may be starting to finally come down. Recent tax cuts and energy rebates may also be contributing to this slight easing in financial pressure.

While cost of living remains the highest unprompted concern of the community (69%), this has dropped from July’s high of 75%.

Around 41% of Australians report experiencing financial difficulties, down from a peak of 46% in June 2023.

Only three in ten Australians (31%) are confident inflation will fall over the next 12 months, although this is up from just 25% in July.

Since April there has been a 9% fall in the proportion who report that the rising cost of living is making them feel more anxious or worried than usual.

Despite this, pessimism towards the economy continues with 45% thinking the economy will worsen in the next three months vs 10% who think it will improve.

Labor and Coalition still neck and neck on cost of living management

Confidence in the best party to manage cost of living remains largely deadlocked with Labor (30%) retaining a slight one-point edge over the Coalition (29%).

Victoria, Queensland confidence lowest in nation

Australians remains concerned about the national direction, with the proportion who feel Australia is heading in the right direction steady at 37%.

Debt-laden Victoria is at the bottom of the pack on a range of measures – only 35% have confidence in the direction of the State, and only 26% rate the Victorian Government as good or excellent.

In Queensland, which is facing an election in October, only 37% believe the state is heading the right way, while 36% perceive the Queensland Government’s performance as being “good” or better.

South Australia is now the most confident state, with 56% of people believing it is heading in the right direction.

Most Australians rooting for a Harris victory in the US election

If it were up to Australians, Kamala Harris would be elected in a landslide – our results show that 58% would prefer a Harris victory and just 22% are hoping that Donald Trump wins.

Nearly half (44%) believe her victory would be a better outcome for Australia vs 18% for trip and the rest either unsure or believing it would make no difference to Australia.

WA confidence also receding from peak heights

Notably confidence in the direction of Western Australia has come down from post-COVID highs, falling from a high of 68% who feel the state is heading in the right direction in March 2022 to 42% in our latest September survey.

Similarly, ratings for the WA Government’s perceived government performance as “good” or better has fallen from a lofty high of 73% in June 2022, to 45% in our September survey.

Contacts

Contact us for more information about the full Mood of the Nation research report or if we can help you navigate community or stakeholder sentiment or expectations.

David Stolper, Partner, SEC Newgate Research – [email protected]

Sue Vercoe, Managing Partner, SEC Newgate Australia – [email protected]

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